Trends in the Notification Rates and Treatment Outcome of Tuberculosis in Shandong Province, China, 2005-2021.

Purpose: To analyze the time trends in the notification rates of registered tuberculosis (TB) and bacteriologically confirmed TB in Shandong Province. And analyze the changes in TB treatment outcomes during 2005-2021. Patients and Methods: The information of TB patients registered in the Shandong Information Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was collected during 2005-2021. We calculated the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB. Moreover, we calculated the year-to-year change rate of TB in treatment outcomes before and after COVID-19. The time trends were analyzed using the joinpoint regression method and illustrated as the annual percentage change (APC) of notification rates. Results: A total of 236,898 cases of TB were diagnosed during 2005-2021, of which 51.11% were bacteriologically confirmed cases. Since 2008, the notification rates of registered TB have declined. The notification rates of bacteriologically confirmed TB had been declining during 2005-2016, then remained stable after 2016. In subgroup, the notification rates of both registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB were higher among men, rural residents, and people aged ≥ 60 years. Compared with clinically confirmed TB, bacteriologically confirmed TB has shown higher rates of poor outcomes since 2008 and higher case fatality rate since 2005. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008-2019. However, after the COVID-19 outbreak, the rate of poor outcomes and case fatality rate of TB has risen significantly. Conclusion: After unremitting efforts to fight against TB, the notification rates of registered TB and bacteriologically confirmed TB declined in Shandong Province. The rate of poor outcomes remained stable during 2008-2019, then rise significantly after the COVID-19 outbreak. In the context of the long-term existence of COVID-19, further efforts should be made in TB diagnosis and treatment among high-risk population, especially with regard to males, rural residents and older adults.

Associations of residential greenness exposure and ambient air pollutants with newly-diagnosed drug-resistant tuberculosis cases.

Growing evidence has found the health protective effects of greenness exposure on tuberculosis (TB) and the impact of ambient air pollutants on TB drug-resistance. However, it remains unclear whether residential greenness is also beneficial to reduce TB drug-resistance, and whether air pollution modify the greenness-TB resistance relationship. We enrolled 5006 newly-diagnosed TB patients from Shandong, China, during 2014 to 2021. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in 250 m and 500 m buffer around individuals' residential zone was used to assess greenness exposure. All patients were divided by quartiles of NDVI250-m and NDVI500-m (from low to high: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4) respectively. Six logistic regression models (NDVI, NDVI + PM2.5/PM10/SO2/NO2/O3) were used to estimate the association of NDVI and TB drug-resistance when adjusting different air pollutants or not. All models were adjusted for age, gender, body mass index, complications, smoking, drinking, population density, nighttime light index, road density. Compared with participants in NDVI250-m Q1 and NDVI500-m Q1, other groups had lower rates of MDR-TB, PDR-TB, RFP-resistance, SM-resistance, RFP + SM resistance, INH + RFP + EMB + SM resistance. NDVI500-m reduced the risk of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and the adjusted odds ratio (aOR, 95% confidence interval, CI) compared with NDVI500-m Q1 were 0.736 (0.547-0.991) in NDVI + PM10 model, 0.733 (0.544-0.986) in NDVI + PM2.5 model, 0.735(0.546-0.99) in NDVI + SO2 model, 0.736 (0.546-0.991) in NDVI + NO2 model, respectively, P < 0.05. NDVI500-m contributed to a decreased risk of streptomycin (SM)-resistance. The aOR of rifampicin (RFP) + SM resistance were 0.132 (NDVI250-m, Q4 vs Q1, 95% CI: 0.03-0.578), 0.199 (NDVI500-m, Q3 vs. Q1, 95% CI: 0.057-0.688) and 0.264 (NDVI500-m, Q4 vs. Q1, 95% CI: 0.087-0.799). The adjusted ORs (Q2 vs. Q1, 95% CI) of isoniazid (INH) + RFP + ethambutol (EMB) + SM resistance in 500 m buffer were 0.276 (0.119-0.639) in NDVI model, 0.279 (0.11-0.705) in NDVI + PM10 model, 0.281 (0.111-0.713) in NDVI + PM2.5 model, 0.279 (0.11-0.709) in NDVI + SO2 model, 0.296 (0.117-0.754) in NDVI + NO2 model, 0.294 (0.116-0.748) in NDVI + O3 model, respectively. The study showed, for the first time, that residential greenness exposure in 500 m buffer is beneficial for reducing newly-diagnosed DR-TB (including PDR-RB, MDR-TB, MR-TB), and ambient air pollutants may partially mediate this association.

Association between fatty acid metabolism gene mutations and Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission revealed by whole genome sequencing.

BACKGROUND: Fatty acid metabolism greatly promotes the virulence and pathogenicity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb). However, the regulatory mechanism of fatty acid metabolism in M.tb remains to be elucidated, and limited evidence about the effects of gene mutations in fatty acid metabolism on the transmission of M.tb was reported. RESULTS: Overall, a total of 3193 M.tb isolates were included in the study, of which 1596 (50%) were genomic clustered isolates. Most of the tuberculosis isolates belonged to lineage2(n = 2744,85.93%), followed by lineage4(n = 439,13.75%) and lineage3(n = 10,0.31%).Regression results showed that the mutations of gca (136,605, 317G > C, Arg106Pro; OR, 22.144; 95% CI, 2.591-189.272), ogt(1,477,346, 286G > C ,Gly96Arg; OR, 3.893; 95%CI, 1.432-10.583), and rpsA (1,834,776, 1235 C > T, Ala412Val; OR, 3.674; 95% CI, 1.217-11.091) were significantly associated with clustering; mutations in gca and rpsA were also significantly associated with clustering of lineage2. Mutation in arsA(3,001,498, 885 C > G, Thr295Thr; OR, 6.278; 95% CI, 2.508-15.711) was significantly associated with cross-regional clusters. We also found that 20 mutation sites were positively correlated with cluster size, while 11 fatty acid mutation sites were negatively correlated with cluster size. CONCLUSION: Our research results suggested that mutations in genes related to fatty acid metabolism were related to the transmission of M.tb. This research could help in the future control of the transmission of M.tb.

A facile indole probe for ultrasensitive immunosensor fabrication toward C-reactive protein sensing.

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a protein biomarker for acute phase response. Herein, we fabricate a highly sensitive electrochemical immunosensor for CRP on a screen-printed carbon electrode (SPCE) with indole as a novel electrochemical probe and Au nanoparticles for signal amplification. Amongst, indole appeared as transparent nanofilms on the electrode surface, and underwent a one-electron and one-proton transfer to form oxindole during the oxidation process. Upon optimization of experimental conditions, a logarithmic correlation between CRP concentration (0.0001-100 µg∙mL-1) and response current was revealed with a detection limit of 0.03 ng∙mL-1 and a sensitivity of 5.7055 µA∙µg-1∙mL∙cm-2. The sensor exhibited exceptionally distinction selectivity, reproducibility and stability of the electrochemical immunosensor studied. The recovery rate of CRP in human serum samples determined by the standard addition method, ranged between 98.2-102.2%. Overall, the developed immunosensor is promising, and has the potential for CRP detection in real human serum samples.

Association between physiological and perceptual heat strain while wearing stab-resistant body armor.

In this study, we explored the association between physiological and perceptual heat strain while wearing stab-resistant body armor (SRBA). Human trials were performed on ten participants in warm and hot environments. Physiological responses (core temperature, skin temperature, and heart rate), and perceptual responses (thermal sensation vote, thermal comfort vote, restriction of perceived exertion (RPE), wetness of skin, and wetness of clothing) were recorded throughout the trials, and subsequently, the physiological strain index (PSI), and perceptual strain index (PeSI) were calculated. The results indicated that the PeSI showed a significant moderate association with the PSI, and was capable of predicting PSI for low (PSI = 3) and high (PSI = 7) levels of physiological strain with the areas under the curves of 0.80 and 0.64, respectively. Moreover, Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the majority of the PSI ranged within the 95% confidence interval, and the mean difference between PSI and PeSI was 0.14 ± 2.02 with the lower 95% limit and upper 95% limit being -3.82 to 4.10, respectively. Therefore, the subjective responses could be used as an indicator for predicting physiological strain while wearing SRBA. This study could provide fundamental knowledge for the usage of SRBA, and the development of physiological heat strain assessment.

Polyketide synthases mutation in tuberculosis transmission revealed by whole genomic sequence, China, 2011-2019.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by a bacterium called Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb). Previous studies have primarily focused on the transmissibility of multidrug-resistant (MDR) or extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Mtb. However, variations in virulence across Mtb lineages may also account for differences in transmissibility. In Mtb, polyketide synthase (PKS) genes encode large multifunctional proteins which have been shown to be major mycobacterial virulence factors. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the role of PKS mutations in TB transmission and assess its risk and characteristics. Methods: Whole genome sequences (WGSs) data from 3,204 Mtb isolates was collected from 2011 to 2019 in China. Whole genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) profiles were used for phylogenetic tree analysis. Putative transmission clusters (≤10 SNPs) were identified. To identify the role of PKS mutations in TB transmission, we compared SNPs in the PKS gene region between "clustered isolates" and "non-clustered isolates" in different lineages. Results: Cluster-associated mutations in ppsA, pks12, and pks13 were identified among different lineage isolates. They were statistically significant among clustered strains, indicating that they may enhance the transmissibility of Mtb. Conclusion: Overall, this study provides new insights into the function of PKS and its localization in M. tuberculosis. The study found that ppsA, pks12, and pks13 may contribute to disease progression and higher transmission of certain strains. We also discussed the prospective use of mutant ppsA, pks12, and pks13 genes as drug targets.

Association between diagnostic delay and prognosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the main infectious diseases that seriously threatens global health, while diagnostic delay (DD) and treatment dramatically threaten TB control. METHODS: Between 2005 and 2017 in Shandong, China, we enrolled pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients with DD. DD trends were evaluated by Joinpoint regression, and associations between PTB patient characteristics and DD were estimated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. The influence of DD duration on prognosis and sputum smear results were assessed by Spearman correlation coefficients. RESULTS: We identified 208,822 PTB cases with a median DD of 33 days (interquartile range (IQR) 18-63). The trend of PTB with DD declined significantly between 2009 and 2017 (annual percent change (APC): - 4.0%, P = 0.047, 2009-2013; APC: - 6.6%, P = 0.001, 2013-2017). Patients aged > 45 years old (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.223, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.189-1.257, 46-65 years; aOR: 1.306, 95% CI 1.267-1.346, > 65 years), farmers (aOR: 1.520, 95% CI 1.447-1.596), and those with a previous treatment history (aOR: 1.759, 95% CI 1.699-1.821) were prone to developing long DD (> 30 days, P < 0.05). An unfavorable outcome was negatively associated with a short DD (OR: 0.876, 95% CI 0.843-0.910, P < 0.001). Sputum smear positive rate and unfavorable outcomes were positively correlated with DD duration (Spearman correlation coefficients (rs) = 1, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The DD situation remains serious; more efficient and comprehensive strategies are urgently required to minimize DD, especially for high-risk patients.

Impact of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking on the drug-resistance of newly diagnosed tuberculosis: a retrospective cohort study in Shandong, China, during 2004-2020.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the independent and collective impact of alcohol drinking and tobacco smoking on the drug-resistance of newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB). DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Shandong, China. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with newly diagnosed TB from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2020 were collected. Exclusive criteria: retreated cases; extrapulmonary tuberculosis; without information on drug susceptibility testing results, smoking or drinking habits; bacteriological identification as non-tuberculous mycobacteria. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Patients were classified into four groups including smokers only (G1), drinker only (G2), smoker +drinker (G3), non-smoker +non-drinker group (G0). We described the drug-resistant profiles, clinical factors and calculated the ORs of different drug-resistance among G1, G2, G3, compared with G0 through univariate and multivariate logistics regression models. RESULTS: Of the 7996 TB cases enrolled, the proportions of G1, G2, G3 and G0 were 8.25%, 3.89%, 16.46% and 71.40%, respectively. The rates of drug-resistant (DR)-TB, mono-resistant TB, multidrug resistant (MDR)-TB, polydrug resistant TB in G1, G2, G3 and G0 were 19.24%/16.4%/17.33%/19.08%, 11.52%/8.68%/10.94%/11.63%, 3.03%/2.57%/2.96%/3.66% and 4.70%/4.82%/3.34%/ 4.08%, respectively. G3 had a higher risk of MDR1: isoniazid +rifampin (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.91, 95% CI: 1.036 to 3.532), but had a lower risk of DR-TB (aOR=0.84, 95% CI: 0.71 to 0.99), rifampin-related resistance (aOR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.93), streptomycin-related resistance (aOR=0.82, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.99), ethambutol-related resistance (aOR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.95), MDR3: isoniazid +rifampin+streptomycin (aOR=0.41, 95% CI: 0.19 to 0.85), any isoniazid +streptomycin resistance (aOR=0.85, 95% CI: 0.71 to 1.00). However, there were no significant differences between G1 and G0, G2 and G0 in all drug-resistant subtypes. Those patients with cavity had a higher risk of DR-TB among G3 (OR=1.35, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.81). CONCLUSION: Although we did not found an independent impact of alcohol drinking or tobacco smoking on TB drug-resistance, respectively, these two habits had a combined effect on TB drug-resistance.

Enzyme-free glucose sensors with efficient synergistic electro-catalysis based on a ferrocene derivative and two metal nanoparticles.

Gold electrodes (GE) were modified by the deposition of copper nanoparticles (CuNPs) and cobalt nanoparticles (CoNPs), followed by drop-casting of the ferrocene derivative FcCO-Glu-Cys-Gly-OH (Fc-ECG), resulting in two enzyme-free electrochemical sensors Fc-ECG/CuNPs/GE and Fc-ECG/CuNPs/GE. The ferrocene-peptide conjugate acts as an effective redox mediator for glucose oxidation, while metal nanoparticles acted as non-biological sites for glucose oxidation. Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), cyclic voltammetry (CV) and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) were carried out for characterization, while differential pulse voltammetry (DPV) was used for glucose quantification. Under optimized conditions, DPV shows a linear relationship between glucose concentration and the peak current. Both sensors showed a surprisingly high sensitivity of 217.27 and 378.70 µA mM-1 cm-2, respectively. A comparison to other glucose sensors shows a sensitivity that is 25 times higher. The sensors exhibit good reproducibility, stability, and repeatability. In injection experiments, recovery rates were 87.39-107.65% and 100.00-106.88%, respectively.

One step construction of an electrochemical sensor for melamine detection in milk towards an integrated portable system.

Excessive intake of melamine (MEL) can be harmful to human health, and it is important to establish a rapid and accurate MEL detection method. As the electrochemical activity of MEL is very low, ferrocenylglutathione (Fc-ECG) was used as an electron transfer mediator to assist with the detection of MEL using screen-printed carbon electrode (SPCE). This modified electrode (MEL/Fc-ECG/SPCE) was prepared by stepwise drop-casting and was fully characterized. Results showed that MEL significantly enhanced signal of Fc-ECG/SPCE sensor due to the three p-π conjugated double bonds that facilitated electron transfer. Under optimal conditions, the sensor exhibits two linearities in the range of 0.20-2.00 µM and 8.00-800 µM, with a sensitivity of 15.03 µA·µM-1·cm-2. The selectivity, stability, and reproducibility were investigated and successfully used to detect MEL in raw milk and confirms safety verification of foods. Moreover, a portable testing platform was designed for MEL detection based on a CH32 chip.

Effects of a liquid cooling vest on physiological and perceptual responses while wearing stab-resistant body armor in a hot environment.

This study determines the effects of a liquid cooling vest (LCV) on physiological and perceptual responses while wearing stab-resistant body armor (SRBA). Ten healthy male volunteers wearing SRBA performed human trials with the LCV and without (control) in a hot environment (30 °C and 40% relative humidity). Physiological parameters and perceptual responses were recorded during the tests. The results indicated that the difference in the mean skin temperature and scapula skin temperature between the two conditions was up to 1.2 and 2.5 °C, respectively. The LCV did not significantly decrease the core temperature, heart rate, sweat loss, oxygen consumption, rating of perceived exertion and restriction of movement. However, a significant difference was observed between conditions in terms of evaporation efficiency and thermal sensation. Therefore, the LCV attenuated an increase in thermal sensation but did not mitigate physiological strain. This work can provide fundamental knowledge for high-performance personal cooling system development.

Association between body mass index and newly diagnosed drug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China from 2004 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), obesity, and malnutrition are growing public health problems in the world. However, little has discussed the impact of different BMI status on the emergence of TB drug resistance. We aimed to explore the drug-resistant profiles of DR-TB and its clinical predictors among underweight, overweight or obesity population. METHODS: 8957 newly diagnosed TB cases with drug susceptibility results and BMI data in Shandong China, from 2004 to 2019 were enrolled. Multivariable and univariable logistic regression models were applied to investigate the impact of BMI on different drug-resistance. Clinical predicators and drug-resistant profiles of DR-TB among obesity, underweight, normal TB group were also described. RESULTS: Among 8957 TB cases, 6417 (71.64%) were normal weight, 2121 (23.68%) were underweight, 373 (4.16%) were overweight, and 46 (0.51%) were obese. The proportion of drug resistance and co-morbidity among normal weight, underweight, overweight, obese TB groups were 18.86%/18.25%/20.38%/23.91% (DR-TB), 11.19%/11.74%/9.65%/17.39% (mono-resistant tuberculosis, MR-TB), 3.41%/3.06%/5.36%/0.00% (multidrug resistant tuberculosis, MDR-TB), 4.21%/3.39%/5.36%/6.52% (polydrug resistant tuberculosis, PDR-TB), 10.57%/8.44%/19.57%/23.91% (co-morbidity), respectively. Compared with normal weight group, underweight were associated with lower risk of streptomycin-related resistance (OR 0.844, 95% CI 0.726-0.982), but contributed to a higher risk of MR-TB (isoniazid) (odds ratio (OR) 1.347, 95% CI 1.049-1.730; adjusted OR (aOR) 1.31, 95% CI 1.017-1.686), P < 0.05. In addition, overweight were positively associated with MDR-TB (OR 1.603, 95% CI 1.002-2.566; aOR 1.639, 95% CI 1.02-2.633), isoniazid + rifampicin + streptomycin resistance (OR 1.948, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.061-3.577; aOR 2.113, 95% CI 1.141-3.912), Any isoniazid + streptomycin resistance (OR 1.472, 95% CI 1.013-2.14; aOR 1.483, 95% CI 1.017-2.164), P < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: The higher risk of MDR-TB, isoniazid + rifampicin + streptomycin resistance, Any isoniazid + streptomycin resistance, and co-morbidity among overweight population implies that routine screening for drug sensitivity and more attention on co-morbidity among overweight TB cases may be necessary. In addition, underweight TB cases have a higher risk of isoniazid resistance. Our study suggests that an in-depth study of the interaction between host metabolic activity and infection of DR-TB may contribute more to novel treatment options or preventive measures, and accelerate the implementation of the STOP TB strategy.

COVID-19 and Tuberculosis Coinfection: An Overview of Case Reports/Case Series and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and tuberculosis (TB) are two major infectious diseases posing significant public health threats, and their coinfection (aptly abbreviated COVID-TB) makes the situation worse. This study aimed to investigate the clinical features and prognosis of COVID-TB cases. Methods: The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, CNKI, and Wanfang databases were searched for relevant studies published through December 18, 2020. An overview of COVID-TB case reports/case series was prepared that described their clinical characteristics and differences between survivors and deceased patients. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for death or severe COVID-19 were calculated. The quality of outcomes was assessed using GRADEpro. Results: Thirty-six studies were included. Of 89 COVID-TB patients, 19 (23.46%) died, and 72 (80.90%) were male. The median age of non-survivors (53.95 ± 19.78 years) was greater than that of survivors (37.76 ± 15.54 years) (p < 0.001). Non-survivors were more likely to have hypertension (47.06 vs. 17.95%) or symptoms of dyspnea (72.73% vs. 30%) or bilateral lesions (73.68 vs. 47.14%), infiltrates (57.89 vs. 24.29%), tree in bud (10.53% vs. 0%), or a higher leucocyte count (12.9 [10.5-16.73] vs. 8.015 [4.8-8.97] × 109/L) than survivors (p < 0.05). In terms of treatment, 88.52% received anti-TB therapy, 50.82% received antibiotics, 22.95% received antiviral therapy, 26.23% received hydroxychloroquine, and 11.48% received corticosteroids. The pooled ORs of death or severe disease in the COVID-TB group and the non-TB group were 2.21 (95% CI: 1.80, 2.70) and 2.77 (95% CI: 1.33, 5.74) (P < 0.01), respectively. Conclusion: In summary, there appear to be some predictors of worse prognosis among COVID-TB cases. A moderate level of evidence suggests that COVID-TB patients are more likely to suffer severe disease or death than COVID-19 patients. Finally, routine screening for TB may be recommended among suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 in countries with high TB burden.

Risk factors for drug-resistant tuberculosis, the association between comorbidity status and drug-resistant patterns: a retrospective study of previously treated pulmonary tuberculosis in Shandong, China, during 2004-2019.

OBJECTIVE: This study was designed to identify the risk factors for drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) and the association between comorbidity and drug resistance among retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). DESIGN: A retrospective study was conducted among all the 36 monitoring sites in Shandong, China, over a 16-year period. Baseline characteristics were collected from the TB Surveillance System. Categorical variables were compared by Fisher's exact or Pearson's χ2 test. The risk factors for drug resistance were identified using univariable analysis and multivariable logistic models. The influence of comorbidity on different types of drug resistance was evaluated by performing multivariable logistic models with the covariates adjusted by age, sex, body mass index, drinking/smoking history and cavity. RESULTS: A total of 10 975 patients with PTB were recorded during 2004-2019, and of these 1924 retreated PTB were finally included. Among retreated PTB, 26.2% were DR-TB and 12.5% had comorbidity. Smoking (adjusted OR (aOR): 1.69, 95% CI 1.19 to 2.39), cavity (aOR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.97) and comorbidity (aOR: 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.02) were risk factors for DR-TB. Of 504 DR-TB, 9.5% had diabetes mellitus, followed by hypertension (2.0%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1.8%). Patients with retreated PTB with comorbidity were more likely to be older, have more bad habits (smoking, alcohol abuse) and have clinical symptoms (expectoration, haemoptysis, weight loss). Comorbidity was significantly associated with DR-TB (aOR: 1.44, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.02), overall rifampin resistance (aOR: 2.17, 95% CI 1.41 to 3.36), overall streptomycin resistance (aOR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.27) and multidrug resistance (aOR: 1.96, 95% CI 1.17 to 3.27) compared with pan-susceptible patients (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Smoking, cavity and comorbidity lead to an increased risk of drug resistance among retreated PTB. Strategies to improve the host's health, including smoking cessation, screening and treatment of comorbidity, might contribute to the control of tuberculosis, especially DR-TB, in China.

Ambient air pollutants, diabetes and risk of newly diagnosed drug-resistant tuberculosis.

BACKGROUND: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), diabetes and exposure to air pollution are thought to be important threat to human health, but no studies have explored the effects of ambient air pollutants on DR-TB when adjusting diabetes status so far. METHODS: We performed a study among 3759 newly diagnosed TB cases with drug-susceptibility testing results, diabetes status, and individual air pollution data in Shandong from 2015 to 2019. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) including three models (Model 1: without covariates, Model 2: adjusted by diabetes status only, Model 3: with all covariates) were applied. RESULTS: Of 3759 TB patients enrolled, 716 (19.05%) were DR-TB, and 333 (8.86%) had diabetes. High exposure to O3 was associated with an increased risk of RFP-resistance (Model 2 or 3: odds ratio (OR) = 1.008, 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.002-1.014), ethambutol-resistance (Model 3: OR = 1.015, 95%CI: 1.004-1.027) and any rifampicin+streptomycin resistance (Model 1,2,3: OR = 1.01, 95%CI: 1.002-1.018) at 90 days. In contrast, NO2 was associated with a reduced risk of DR-TB (Model 3: OR = 0.99, 95%CI: 0.981-0.999) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) (Model 3: OR = 0.977, 95%CI: 0.96-0.994) at 360 days. Additionally, SO2 (Model 1, 2, 3: OR = 0.987, 95%CI: 0.977-0.998) showed a protective effect on MDR-TB at 90 days. PM2.5 (90 days, Model 2: OR = 0.991, 95%CI: 0.983-0.999), PM10 (360 days, Model 2: OR = 0.992, 95%CI: 0.985-0.999) had protective effects on any RFP+SM resistance. CONCLUSIONS: O3 contributed to an elevated risk of TB resistance but PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 showed an inverse effect. Air pollutants may affect the development of drug resistance among TB cases by adjusting the status of diabetes.

Using a risk model for probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules.

BACKGROUND: Considering the high morbidity and mortality of lung cancer and the high incidence of pulmonary nodules, clearly distinguishing benign from malignant lung nodules at an early stage is of great significance. However, determining the kind of lung nodule which is more prone to lung cancer remains a problem worldwide. METHODS: A total of 480 patients with pulmonary nodule data were collected from Shandong, China. We assessed the clinical characteristics and computed tomography (CT) imaging features among pulmonary nodules in patients who had undergone video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) lobectomy from 2013 to 2018. Preliminary selection of features was based on a statistical analysis using SPSS. We used WEKA to assess the machine learning models using its multiple algorithms and selected the best decision tree model using its optimization algorithm. RESULTS: The combination of decision tree and logistics regression optimized the decision tree without affecting its AUC. The decision tree structure showed that lobulation was the most important feature, followed by spiculation, vessel convergence sign, nodule type, satellite nodule, nodule size and age of patient. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that decision tree analyses can be applied to screen individuals for early lung cancer with CT. Our decision tree provides a new way to help clinicians establish a logical diagnosis by a stepwise progression method, but still needs to be validated for prospective trials in a larger patient population.

Population aging and trends of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: To explore population aging and the epidemic trend of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in the elderly, and provide a basis for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly. METHODS: We collected clinical information of 239,707 newly active PTB patients in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2017. We analyzed and compared the clinical characteristics, reported incidence and temporal trend of PTB among the elderly group (≥60 years) and the non-elderly group (< 60 years) through logistic model and Join-point regression model. RESULTS: Among the total PTB cases, 77,192(32.2%) were elderly. Compared with non-elderly patients, newly active elderly PTB patients account for a greater proportion of male cases (OR 1.688, 95% CI 1.656-1.722), rural population cases (OR 3.411, 95% CI 3.320-3.505) and bacteriologically confirmed PTB cases (OR 1.213, 95%CI 1.193-1.234). The annual reported incidence of total, elderly, pulmonary bacteriologically confirmed cases were 35.21, 68.84, 35.63 (per 100,000), respectively. The annual reported incidence of PTB in the whole population, the elderly group and the non-elderly group has shown a slow downward trend since 2008. The joinpoint regression model showed that the overall reported incidence of PTB in the elderly significantly decreased from 2007 to 2017 (APC = -5.3, P < 0.05). The reported incidence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB among elderly patients declined rapidly from 2005 to 2014(2005-2010 APC = -7.2%, P < 0.05; 2010-2014 APC = -22.6%, P < 0.05; 2014-2017 APC = -9.0%, P = 0.1). The reported incidence of clinically diagnosed PTB among elderly patients from 2005 to 2017 (11.48-38.42/100,000) increased by about 235%. It rose significantly from 2007 to 2014 (APC = 9.4, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the non-elderly population, the reported incidence of PTB in the elderly population is higher. The main burden of PTB will shift to the elderly, men, rural population, and clinically diagnosed patients. With the intensification of aging, more researches on elderly PTB prevention and treatment will facilitate the realization of the global tuberculosis (TB) control targets.

An Ecological Study of Tuberculosis Incidence in China, From 2002 to 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis is one of the main infectious diseases threatening global health, which is also the main cause of death from a single source of infection (above HIV/AIDS). China is a country with a high burden of tuberculosis in the world, ranking only behind India and Indonesia. However, there are few ecological studies on the burden of tuberculosis in China. This study aims to provide more research basis for the government to formulate tuberculosis policies by exploring the ecological factors associated with the incidence of tuberculosis, so as to achieve the goal of eliminating tuberculosis by 2030. METHODS: We collected data on the incidence of tuberculosis and ecological factors of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in Mainland China (excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau) from 2002 to 2018. We constructed a framework of ecological factors affecting the incidence, which consists of 5 secondary indicators and 35 tertiary indicators. And we construct a dynamic panel data model based on the Lasso Regression to select variables to test the effect of each ecological factor on the incidence. RESULTS: Among the 35 tertiary indicators, economy 3,4,6,7, environment 1, recourses 1,3, demography 3, and lifecare 2,4,8,9,13 passed the significance test at the 1% level, economy 1,2,5, environment 2,9, lifecare 6,12 passed the significance test at the 5% level, lifecare 10 passed the significance test at the 10% level. Only economy 5 and economy 6 have a positive impact on the incidence, other statistically significant ecological indicators are negatively correlated with the incidence. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicated that many ecological factors, including residents' income, unemployment rate, educational level, medical resources, population density, sunshine duration and dietary structure, are closely related to the incidence of tuberculosis. These findings contribute the government to taking targeted measures for tuberculosis prevention and control, including improving the level of economic development, increasing employment, expanding the scale of enrollment in colleges and universities, and ensuring that the prices of sources of animal protein are reasonable to meet the residents' intake of protein.

Primary Drug-Resistance Pattern and Trend in Elderly Tuberculosis Patients in Shandong, China, from 2004 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: With an aging population, China is facing a huge burden of elderly patients with drug resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB), which has become a significant obstacle for the global TB control. There is still little study on DR-TB in the elderly in China so far. Thus, more research on the epidemiological characteristics and trend of primary DR-TB among the elderly will be necessary. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in Shandong, China from 2004 to 2019. We collected 12,661 primary TB cases, of which 4368 elderly (≥60 years) primary TB cases were involved. Clinical characteristics including age, sex, cavity, smoking, drinking, comorbidity and drug susceptibility data were collected from 36 TB prevention and control institutions of Shandong Province. Sputum samples were collected by each surveillance site, and examined in the TB Reference Laboratory of SPCH. Descriptive statistical analysis, chi-square and linear regression were used for analyzing. RESULTS: Among 4368 elderly patients with primary TB, the DR-TB and multi-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) accounted for 17.19% and 2.29%, respectively. During 2004-2019, the proportions of MDR-TB, polydrug resistant tuberculosis (PDR-TB), rifampin (RFP)-resistance increased by 160.00%, 18.18%, 231.82%, respectively and the rate of DR-TB among elderly patients with primary cavitary TB increased by 255%. Among the elderly with primary DR-TB during 2004-2019, the proportion of male (from 85.19 to 89.06), cavity (from 7.41 to 46.88), RFP-resistance (from 3.70 to 21.88), and streptomycin (SM)-resistance (from 37.04 to 62.5) increased significantly (P<0.05). And the proportion of female (from 14.81 to 10.94), non-cavity (from 92.59 to 32.81), INH-resistance (from 66.67 to 57.81) decreased significantly (P<0.05). CONCLUSION: Among the elderly, the proportions of MDR-TB, PDR-TB, RFP-resistance and cavitary DR-TB increased significantly. The pattern of DR-TB changed from female, non-cavity and INH-resistant groups to male, cavity, RFP or SM-resistant groups. For a better control on the elderly DR-TB in the future, we should pay more attention to male, smoking, drinking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes subgroups and take targeted measures to control these subgroups.